Fed Hold Bets Build as Earnings Loom

Market Review

MY: The local bourse traded on a softer note, with the FBMKLCI dragged down by CIMB and PMETAL. However, broader sentiment remained resilient, as 597 gainers outpaced 471 losers. Sector-wise, Technology (+1.59%) outperformed, while Plantation (-2.39%) lagged the most.

US: Wall Street ended lower on Friday as technology stocks remained under pressure amid concerns over AI-related valuations and spending. Rising oil prices and persistent inflation fears also weighed on sentiment, with the S&P 500 and Dow declining 1.1% and 0.3%, respectively, while the Nasdaq slumped 2.2%.

The Day Ahead

US: Warsh's latest comments reinforced expectations of a Fed rate hold at its 27–28 October meeting, with market-implied odds of a hike falling to around 15% after he refrained from signalling the next policy move. Meanwhile, US industrial production rose 0.7% MoM in September, while manufacturing output increased 0.3%, suggesting resilient but uneven industrial activity. Stock-wise, Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) and Steel Dynamics (STLD) are scheduled to report 3Q26 results before the open and after the close, respectively. STLD has guided for EPS of USD5.34–5.38, up from USD3.69 in 2Q26, supported by wider steel margins and record shipments, with investors watching for sustained margin expansion.

MY: Locally, investors may remain selective, with interest potentially extending towards engineering services, semiconductor recovery and water-efficiency themes. PIONEER offers revenue visibility from its reported RM50.43m unbilled order book as it pursues larger engineering projects and expansion in Sarawak. CPETECH could attract attention following a recovery in 4QFY26 earnings, supported by stronger semiconductor demand and higher production volumes, although full-year profit remained lower YoY. Meanwhile, ISF is worth watching for potential partnerships with state water authorities to reduce non-revenue water, which could open up recurring income opportunities.

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