1. U.S. stock ETF gainer list this week

All three major U.S. stock indexes recorded slight declines this week, and the rally in technology stocks paused; the two key inflation indicators, CPI and PPI, accelerated in February, and the market's wait-and-see attitude towards interest rate cuts increased. Traders will also get new clues next Wednesday when policymakers release their latest forecasts for benchmark interest rates.

Judging from the US stock ETF growth list:

• Marijuana ETFs were among the top gainers last week, with the 2x long marijuana ETF $MSTY soaring 18% and $MSOX rising 15%; according to foreign media reports, the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration may soon carry out cannabis reforms and remove it from the federal government’s controlled substance laws. Schedule 1;
• The three times long oil stock ETF $NRGU rose more than 15% on the week. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said during the week that the oil market is expected to shift from oversupply this year to a full-year shortage;
• In addition, Tesla fell another 6.7% during the week, and the two-time short Tesla ETF $TSDD and $TSLZ rose nearly 14% during the week.

2. Performance of major stock index ETFs

As the consumption data and inflation data released by the United States during the week dampened market expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, U.S. stocks pulled back during the week, and the small-cap stock index, which is more sensitive to interest rates, led the decline.

In terms of ETF gainers, the three-time short small-cap ETF $TZA rose more than 6% on the week, the two-time short Russell 2000 ETF $TWM rose more than 4%, and $SQQQ rose more than 3%.

Notably, a Bank of America report showed that inflows into U.S. stocks hit a record high as investors shrugged off the risk of stagflation.

Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett cited EPFR Global data in a report saying that U.S. stock funds received $56 billion in inflows in the week ended March 13. Technology stocks had the largest inflows of any sector, at $6.8 billion, rebounding from previously record outflows.

3. Performance of commodity ETFs

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said this week that as OPEC+ appears to continue production cuts in the second half of this year, the global oil market is expected to face a supply shortage throughout 2024 instead of the oversupply previously expected.

Affected by this, the three times long oil stock ETF $NRGU rose by more than 15% during the week; in terms of commodity ETFs, the two times long crude oil ETF $UCO rose by more than 7.6% during the week.

Royal Bank of Canada said that with global crude oil production about to slow down, the supply and demand imbalance in the entire crude oil market may soon shift in the opposite direction. Croft predicted that this could lead to international benchmark Brent crude reaching $85 in the second half of 2024, or even before the second half of the year.

4. Market views for the week

Yellen: U.S. interest rates are unlikely to fall back to "pre-epidemic levels" and inflation is still on a downward trend!

U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen said it was "unlikely" that market interest rates would return to pre-coronavirus pandemic levels. The COVID-19 crisis detonated inflation and prompted the Federal Reserve to subsequently raise interest rates aggressively. According to the fiscal year 2025 budget proposal released on Monday, the White House's latest prediction is that the U.S. economy will cool down significantly in 2024, which is more pessimistic than many economists. Furthermore, inflation will remain stubbornly above the Fed's target.

The most aggressive bank Nomura: Delayed the first expected interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve to July, and only cut interest rates twice this year

When the Federal Reserve was still raising interest rates last year, Nomura "deservedly" was the most aggressive large investment bank on Wall Street. Now, before the Federal Reserve starts to cut interest rates, it is still the most aggressive investment bank and the first to jump out and call for a delay in interest rate cuts. Due to strong inflation data at the beginning of the year, Nomura changed its bets on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts this year, and expects the first rate cut of this round to occur at the July meeting, a month later than the June consensus expected by Wall Street.

Another major bank attacks the market's "bubble theory": There is no need to worry until the S&P 500 rises by another 20%!

The "wild surge" in U.S. stocks has prompted many investors to put forward the "bubble theory." But according to Societe Generale strategists, even if a bubble is forming in the U.S. stock market, it still has plenty of room to expand before it bursts.

The bank's team of strategists, led by Manish Kabra, said the S&P 500 would likely need to climb to 6,250, or about 20% above current levels, before reaching the multiples seen at the height of the dot-com bubble in 2000. This suggests that despite concerns that the stock market has gone too high, it is actually still possible for it to continue to rise sharply.

Going against Wall Street? Morgan Stanley CIO is firmly bearish on U.S. stocks: "stick to" the 4,500-point target price

As Wall Street forecasters ramp up optimism about U.S. stocks, Morgan Stanley Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson is unmoved, saying he has no reason to raise his forecasts for U.S. stocks given the general lack of growth in corporate earnings. .

In his latest interview on Tuesday, he stuck to his year-end price target of 4,500 for the S&P 500. It comes after a growing number of peers, including Bank of America Corp., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and UBS Group AG, raised their forecasts for the index.

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